Monday, October 30, 2006


Tennessee, Virginia and Missouri - 3 in play

Actually there are less than 9 days 'til the national saliva test.....the whole world is no longer watching....they have largely given up on us after the puppet ratification of 2004 ....with no place else to go, I will stay and fright...fight...whatever....(you don't suppose they plan these events in mid-autumn deliberately)...anyway ....Virginia had chain gangs when I lived there in the late 1970's....the northern part of the state, viewed now as the "progressive" DC suburban area, given the industry of governing, is quite transient, much like the incumbent Senator George "Boots" Allen..."Junior" to his friends, but no one calls him might like to think that the "Old Dominion" is too sophisticated to be fronted by , let alone fooled by, the pampered southern California charletan....spelling?... still the chalk talkin' turf rat is the incumbent, and was the it an ode to shameless ambition, superficial identity, and now that customary refrain...power o' $$$$. While Jim Webb is not a natural campaigner, he speaks directly to policy points and his past as a Reagan appointee insulates him from commie suspicions among the Bircher quadrant. The polls have margin of error quality about them....Virginians are plenty savvy enough to sense the need for change, but i think the deep-pocketed 'stars and bars schmoozer' will carry the day. One for the puppet!

On to the Volunteer state....the last polling I saw had Ford (D) establishing a beyond m.o.e. (margin of error) lead, but these things bounce in all kinds of directions, and the " me" ads had yet to register. To his credit Mayor Corker disavowed the racially tinged spots, but as they have apparently continued through the weekend, the observer can't help but fear for the distinct limits to Mr. Corker's credit, and independence. Harold Ford is young, handsome, carries a moderate voting record as a sitting US Representative, and hails from a prominent political family in Tennessee. Shrill paeans to miscegination fears are unlikely to resonate as clearly in the fog of the extant sex predator/house page embarrassment. One for the people!

Out to the show-me state, where the bud and the bubbly are still flowing no doubt. This race has been tight throughout, and may be the scene of protracted counting and recounting. From a distant perspective, two things augur saliently for Claire McKaskill's bid to oust yes-man jim Talent. First of all, the Cardinals have ended the paradigm of World Series ad buys. A boon to both camps, it means even more to the lesser funded challenger. Then there is the stem cell research hullabaloo. Oxy contin recovery versus truncated horizons, how will Missourians parse the matters? It is quite a challenge to show anybody anything, when researchers are not allowed to investigate. The middle of the country understands this. Two for the people!

Two of three means some checks on the imperial metastisis, as for balance, call me really skeptical!
Jonahpf in the belly of the beast


Which will Dems win? Tennessee, Virginia or Missouri

With the elections less than a week away and the Democrats looking like they'll win a majority in the House of Representatives, a number of Senate races will be key to which party controls the upper house. Can the Democrats carry the day in Tennessee, Virginia or Missouri, and if so, why?

Here's my take:

Tennessee, Virginia and Missouri - my picks

While I would certainly love to see a Democrat majority in both houses, the Senate is probably going to remain marginally Republican.

My gut tells me that George Allen is going to win what's likely to be regarded as the ugliest Senate race ever by a slim margin. Webb has yet to take the lead in any poll, which suggests that despite Senator Macacawitz (kudos to Stephanie Miller for that moniker) repeatedly stepping on his own penis and other body parts, the Virginia electorate is still not ready to relinquish its good-old-boy attitude.

Also, Webb was outspent by Allen by something like 7-1, so it seems the D3C hasn't put real money behind their candidate. Too bad, because Allen is a few notches short of moron and doesn't represent anything besides party-line BS.

In Tennessee, I think Harold Ford, Jr. stands a pretty good chance of winning because the voters in the Volunteer state are becoming more and more literate and progressive with each passing election. There are still plenty of NASCAR-like havens and back-woodsy types, and the Christian Coalition is pretty strong there, but I have a hunch that Ford is a shade light enough (yes, the race is about race) to win 51-49.

The ads run by the Republican National Committee on behalf of Corker seem to have backfired and Ford seems like he'd be an intelligent, committed representative for all of Tennessee. It's probably going to be in the "too close to call" category all the way until the polls close, but I'll give Ford the nod.

Claire McCaskill has hung in against Jim Talent in Missouri, though that's not saying much. Talent seems to be almost as brain-dead as Virginia's Allen, though he comes off a little better. I think this one's going to hinge on personality rather than stem-cell research or minimum wage proposals, as the pollsters have been telling us. If that's the case, McCaskill will win as undecided voters (still about 4%) move decidedly to her camp.

With wins in the other close call states falling for the Dems, I think we're going to wake up on the morning of November 8 with majorities in both chambers of congress, though in the Senate, it will be only 51-49, and that's counting Joe Lieberman as a Democrat (which he's not, really).

I'm keeping my fingers crossed, and of course, I have to add the disclaimer that these predictions are predicated on the notion that the Republicans don't hack the vote.