Monday, October 30, 2006

 

Which will Dems win? Tennessee, Virginia or Missouri

With the elections less than a week away and the Democrats looking like they'll win a majority in the House of Representatives, a number of Senate races will be key to which party controls the upper house. Can the Democrats carry the day in Tennessee, Virginia or Missouri, and if so, why?

Here's my take:

Tennessee, Virginia and Missouri - my picks

While I would certainly love to see a Democrat majority in both houses, the Senate is probably going to remain marginally Republican.

My gut tells me that George Allen is going to win what's likely to be regarded as the ugliest Senate race ever by a slim margin. Webb has yet to take the lead in any poll, which suggests that despite Senator Macacawitz (kudos to Stephanie Miller for that moniker) repeatedly stepping on his own penis and other body parts, the Virginia electorate is still not ready to relinquish its good-old-boy attitude.

Also, Webb was outspent by Allen by something like 7-1, so it seems the D3C hasn't put real money behind their candidate. Too bad, because Allen is a few notches short of moron and doesn't represent anything besides party-line BS.

In Tennessee, I think Harold Ford, Jr. stands a pretty good chance of winning because the voters in the Volunteer state are becoming more and more literate and progressive with each passing election. There are still plenty of NASCAR-like havens and back-woodsy types, and the Christian Coalition is pretty strong there, but I have a hunch that Ford is a shade light enough (yes, the race is about race) to win 51-49.

The ads run by the Republican National Committee on behalf of Corker seem to have backfired and Ford seems like he'd be an intelligent, committed representative for all of Tennessee. It's probably going to be in the "too close to call" category all the way until the polls close, but I'll give Ford the nod.

Claire McCaskill has hung in against Jim Talent in Missouri, though that's not saying much. Talent seems to be almost as brain-dead as Virginia's Allen, though he comes off a little better. I think this one's going to hinge on personality rather than stem-cell research or minimum wage proposals, as the pollsters have been telling us. If that's the case, McCaskill will win as undecided voters (still about 4%) move decidedly to her camp.

With wins in the other close call states falling for the Dems, I think we're going to wake up on the morning of November 8 with majorities in both chambers of congress, though in the Senate, it will be only 51-49, and that's counting Joe Lieberman as a Democrat (which he's not, really).

I'm keeping my fingers crossed, and of course, I have to add the disclaimer that these predictions are predicated on the notion that the Republicans don't hack the vote.

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